Tags |
|
|
Links |
|
|
Social Space - TTS Newsletter #9
--------------------
WELCOME & CONTENTS
--------------------
Hello again, and welcome back to your fortnightly newsletter from the
offices of TrainerTrackStats. Once again the (very wet) weather has been playing havoc with the fixtures programme, but there’s still been plenty of action since I last wrote to you.
In this issue:
- Review since last newsletter
- System angle: "Grand National Follow Up"
- Coming Soon: TrainerFlatStats
- The TTS Joke...
- “You Might Be Interested In…”
- Tomorrow's qualifiers
------------------------------
REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER
------------------------------
With less than three weeks to go u
WELCOME & CONTENTS
--------------------
Hello again, and welcome back to your fortnightly newsletter from the
offices of TrainerTrackStats. Once again the (very wet) weather has been playing havoc with the fixtures programme, but there’s still been plenty of action since I last wrote to you.
In this issue:
- Review since last newsletter
- System angle: "Grand National Follow Up"
- Coming Soon: TrainerFlatStats
- The TTS Joke...
- “You Might Be Interested In…”
- Tomorrow's qualifiers
------------------------------
REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER
------------------------------
With less than three weeks to go u
According to USFDA, a combination product is one composed of any combination of a drug and device; biological product and device; drug and biological product
ntil the start of the Cheltenham Festival, pretty much all of the big trials have now been run, and – if anything – the waters seem muddier than ever.
For the main events, there seem to be numerous contenders with legitimate chances.
Firstly, looking at the Champion Hurdle, the form of Detroit City was again upheld by Straw Bear winning a muddling affair at Wincanton in the Kingwell Hurdle. I was there last Saturday, and did a good few quid on the second horse, Afsoun. The time of the race though was slower than the novice hurdle over the same trip, won impressively by a David Pipe inmate, Osana. (Both Osana and Song Of Songs, who finished behind him, loo
For the main events, there seem to be numerous contenders with legitimate chances.
Firstly, looking at the Champion Hurdle, the form of Detroit City was again upheld by Straw Bear winning a muddling affair at Wincanton in the Kingwell Hurdle. I was there last Saturday, and did a good few quid on the second horse, Afsoun. The time of the race though was slower than the novice hurdle over the same trip, won impressively by a David Pipe inmate, Osana. (Both Osana and Song Of Songs, who finished behind him, loo
; or drug, device, and biological product and fixed dose combination would include two or more combinations of drug.
Examples of combination products may in
Examples of combination products may in
k horses to follow at Aintree rather than Cheltenham).
So if Detroit City looks good in light of Straw Bear’s performance, what of the Irish contenders? Both Mac’s Joy and Harchibald capitulated in the face of a relentless gallop set up front by Champion Chaser, Newmill. Although Mac’s Joy was not beaten far, and a stiffer stamina test will suit, it must be disappointing to connections of both horses that they were beaten by an animal who won’t even run in the race!
It’s still difficult for me to pick the winner, as the most likely candidate, Detroit City, has a welter statistical burden to overcome, being a winner of last season’s Triumph Hurdle and, the
So if Detroit City looks good in light of Straw Bear’s performance, what of the Irish contenders? Both Mac’s Joy and Harchibald capitulated in the face of a relentless gallop set up front by Champion Chaser, Newmill. Although Mac’s Joy was not beaten far, and a stiffer stamina test will suit, it must be disappointing to connections of both horses that they were beaten by an animal who won’t even run in the race!
It’s still difficult for me to pick the winner, as the most likely candidate, Detroit City, has a welter statistical burden to overcome, being a winner of last season’s Triumph Hurdle and, the
lude drug-coated devices, drugs packaged with delivery devices in medical kits, and drugs and devices packaged separately but intended to be used together.
refore, a five year old. Increasingly, form says he will win, but I can’t ignore the stats, so will probably try Hardy Eustace and Macs Joy each way.
The Champion Chase picture has improved over the past fortnight, with big prep runs from Well Chief and the aforementioned Newmill.
Well Chief had been off the track for almost two years before returning in style, thrashing Ashley Brook (Voy Por Ustedes unseated and Foreman pulled up). Assuming there is no bounce factor (i.e. the exertion leading him to underperform next time), WC looks a worthy favourite.
Of those in behind, Foreman looks better on a flat track, as we saw when he won at Aintree last year,
The Champion Chase picture has improved over the past fortnight, with big prep runs from Well Chief and the aforementioned Newmill.
Well Chief had been off the track for almost two years before returning in style, thrashing Ashley Brook (Voy Por Ustedes unseated and Foreman pulled up). Assuming there is no bounce factor (i.e. the exertion leading him to underperform next time), WC looks a worthy favourite.
Of those in behind, Foreman looks better on a flat track, as we saw when he won at Aintree last year,
here is enormous increase in the number of combination products entering the market in the recent years. Combination products have proven advantages but fixe
turning the Arkle tables with Voy Por Ustedes, while the last named remains something of an enigma. Clearly a very good horse, and from a top stable, we have learned little in a predictable second to Kauto Star, a predictable beating of Oneway, and an unpredictable unseating (he is normally a very safe conveyance) behind Well Chief.
At the prices, and with the chance that Well Chief could bounce, I’d want to oppose him, though I’d be delighted to see him crowned champion, as I think he’s a special horse. So, while my heart says Well Chief, my wallet says Voy Por Ustedes. The record of Arkle winners in the Champion Chase is impressive, and this fellow will
At the prices, and with the chance that Well Chief could bounce, I’d want to oppose him, though I’d be delighted to see him crowned champion, as I think he’s a special horse. So, while my heart says Well Chief, my wallet says Voy Por Ustedes. The record of Arkle winners in the Champion Chase is impressive, and this fellow will
d dose combinations are still in the process of convincing regulatory authority on their advantages over the single ingredient formulations.
Combination pro
Combination pro
be ready to run for his life on the day.
One other horse worth a mention is Nickname. His trainer says he will only run if the ground is soft or softer, and he is in to run on Sunday in Ireland. He could yet prove to be a fly in the punting ointment.
Moving on to the World Hurdle, this race revolves around one horse. Black Jack Ketchum is his name, and there are two schools of thought on his ability. The first says he is a good horse, who has been placed shrewdly by his trainer (Jonjo O’Neill), and who was finally found out against other good horses last time. The other says that he is a very good horse, and he didn’t run to his form last time. I have to
One other horse worth a mention is Nickname. His trainer says he will only run if the ground is soft or softer, and he is in to run on Sunday in Ireland. He could yet prove to be a fly in the punting ointment.
Moving on to the World Hurdle, this race revolves around one horse. Black Jack Ketchum is his name, and there are two schools of thought on his ability. The first says he is a good horse, who has been placed shrewdly by his trainer (Jonjo O’Neill), and who was finally found out against other good horses last time. The other says that he is a very good horse, and he didn’t run to his form last time. I have to
ucts have become life saving products for the pharmaceutical companies who doesn’t have many innovative molecules in their product pipeline and have been inc
concede to being a fence sitter, as I can see the merit of both arguments.
As a punter, I will not be rushing to take the 7/4, of that I am certain. So where is the value? Well, clearly his usurper from last time, Blazing Bailey, must figure. Placed behind Detroit City in last year’s Triumph Hurdle, he’s proved himself a gutsy horse, and a thorough stayer this year, and his trainer (Alan King) knows what it takes to win this race, having done the business last year with My Way De Solzen. It’s interesting to note that his trainer reckons he should have won the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (where he finished only fourth to Mighty Man, having had a very troubled
As a punter, I will not be rushing to take the 7/4, of that I am certain. So where is the value? Well, clearly his usurper from last time, Blazing Bailey, must figure. Placed behind Detroit City in last year’s Triumph Hurdle, he’s proved himself a gutsy horse, and a thorough stayer this year, and his trainer (Alan King) knows what it takes to win this race, having done the business last year with My Way De Solzen. It’s interesting to note that his trainer reckons he should have won the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (where he finished only fourth to Mighty Man, having had a very troubled
easingly used in the product life cycle management. Even the companies having product patents are trying to extend their product life cycle through the combi
run).
Of the others, Inglis Drever and Mighty Man have their chances but wouldn’t be for me and – further down the lists – Overstrand would be of interest if taking his chance. He’s one tough and genuine customer, and runner up in the Tote Gold Trophy followed by victory a week later in a big handicap at Ascot last weekend. There are question marks over both his class and whether he stays but, at 40/1, he might be worth a little speculative wager.
Finally, in the Gold Cup, I have nailed my colours to the mast here on numerous previous occasions, and I see no reason to desert the Exotic Dancer ship now. Kauto Star is clearly the form horse, but he has a t
Of the others, Inglis Drever and Mighty Man have their chances but wouldn’t be for me and – further down the lists – Overstrand would be of interest if taking his chance. He’s one tough and genuine customer, and runner up in the Tote Gold Trophy followed by victory a week later in a big handicap at Ascot last weekend. There are question marks over both his class and whether he stays but, at 40/1, he might be worth a little speculative wager.
Finally, in the Gold Cup, I have nailed my colours to the mast here on numerous previous occasions, and I see no reason to desert the Exotic Dancer ship now. Kauto Star is clearly the form horse, but he has a t
nation products and maximize the revenues. But the companies involved in this practice are overlooking that they are burdening the patients both economically
endency to clatter a fence or two, and may well get found out over the twenty-six furlongs and twenty-two fences of the race. (I’m still talking through my pocket, having backed him when he came down early in the Champion Chase last year..!)
Elsewhere on the likely starters list, there are a number of Irish horses who have a squeak, notably last year’s winner War Of Attrition, and In Compliance, but it has always been, and remains, Exotic Dancer for me.
A novelty punt on Kingscliff might reward small stakes each way: he has two types of running, but – if he gets out of his stable on the right side – could give you a run at triple figure odds (119/1 as I w
Elsewhere on the likely starters list, there are a number of Irish horses who have a squeak, notably last year’s winner War Of Attrition, and In Compliance, but it has always been, and remains, Exotic Dancer for me.
A novelty punt on Kingscliff might reward small stakes each way: he has two types of running, but – if he gets out of his stable on the right side – could give you a run at triple figure odds (119/1 as I w
and physically. They need to rightly judge the benefits of the combination products and they have to even look at the risks involved when combining the produ
rite) on Betfair currently.
Next time, I’ll look at the novice races and also the handicaps, though I have to concede that I’m no expert on the latter….!
---------------------------------
SYSTEM ANGLE: Grand National Follow Up
---------------------------------
Now that the weights have been published, it seems a very good time to review the Aintree Grand National picture from a stats angle. To recap, these are the reasons it is a good stats race:
- No other race has so many horses lining up
- No other race is run over such an extreme distance
- No other race has the Aintree fences (with the exception of races at the track of course)
- No ot
Next time, I’ll look at the novice races and also the handicaps, though I have to concede that I’m no expert on the latter….!
---------------------------------
SYSTEM ANGLE: Grand National Follow Up
---------------------------------
Now that the weights have been published, it seems a very good time to review the Aintree Grand National picture from a stats angle. To recap, these are the reasons it is a good stats race:
- No other race has so many horses lining up
- No other race is run over such an extreme distance
- No other race has the Aintree fences (with the exception of races at the track of course)
- No ot
ts. Some of the combination products were well accepted by physicians while others suffered. Companies involved in development of combination products are fi
her race offers such much prize money and kudos (attracting some very classy horses)
- No other race is guaranteed to be run at a frantic pace from the outset
- No French race is run over anything like this distance (French breds don't stay the trip!)
The stats angle for the race says to follow the logic. This means that we're looking for:
- a proven stayer (won over 3m+);
- a reliable jumper (less than two falls in the last two seasons), and at least into his third season jumping;
- a horse that has won in a field of at least 12;
- a horse mature enough to win the race, but not past his best (aged 8-12);
- a horse in the handicap proper, but carryi
- No other race is guaranteed to be run at a frantic pace from the outset
- No French race is run over anything like this distance (French breds don't stay the trip!)
The stats angle for the race says to follow the logic. This means that we're looking for:
- a proven stayer (won over 3m+);
- a reliable jumper (less than two falls in the last two seasons), and at least into his third season jumping;
- a horse that has won in a field of at least 12;
- a horse mature enough to win the race, but not past his best (aged 8-12);
- a horse in the handicap proper, but carryi
ding difficulty in defining their combination products and facing various challenges from selecting a combination to marketing it.
Following aspects would a
Following aspects would a
ng 11stone or less (i.e. scheduled to carry 10-00 to 11-00);
- a horse with proven class (placed in a Grade 3 chase or better);
- a horse who was not bred in France (some have run close, none have won...);and,
- Pay special attention to the Irish (especially if they've been hurdling!); and,
- Favour horses who have jumped the Aintree fences
This makes the 119 entries truncate to a rather more manageable twelve (I previously quoted eight horses, due to some confusion on my part about French bred horses. If a horse has only one French parent, then it is not classed as a French bred, hence some horses have been reinstated). Seven of the eight I previously
- a horse with proven class (placed in a Grade 3 chase or better);
- a horse who was not bred in France (some have run close, none have won...);and,
- Pay special attention to the Irish (especially if they've been hurdling!); and,
- Favour horses who have jumped the Aintree fences
This makes the 119 entries truncate to a rather more manageable twelve (I previously quoted eight horses, due to some confusion on my part about French bred horses. If a horse has only one French parent, then it is not classed as a French bred, hence some horses have been reinstated). Seven of the eight I previously
dd to the challenges in developing combination products:
Which markets to tap where the combination products can do fairly well?
Which combination prod
Which markets to tap where the combination products can do fairly well?
Which combination prod
mentioned remain (Numbersixvalverde has to carry 11-03 and is discounted on this basis):
Point Barrow - Irish National winner off top weight
Graphic Approach - Run some eye catching races for his shrewd trainer who went close with Mely Moss
Naunton Brook - Sound form, safe jumper, trainer won with Earth Summit. Entered in Red Sq Gold Cup on 17th Feb
Cloudy Bays - Excellent form in Ireland, has been running in hurdles, but may have to carry too much weight?
Dun Doire - Cheltenham Festival winner for very shrewd trainer, hampered when unseated last year, been running in hurdles races since Grand National '06
Garvivonnian - An old friend of mine, races
Point Barrow - Irish National winner off top weight
Graphic Approach - Run some eye catching races for his shrewd trainer who went close with Mely Moss
Naunton Brook - Sound form, safe jumper, trainer won with Earth Summit. Entered in Red Sq Gold Cup on 17th Feb
Cloudy Bays - Excellent form in Ireland, has been running in hurdles, but may have to carry too much weight?
Dun Doire - Cheltenham Festival winner for very shrewd trainer, hampered when unseated last year, been running in hurdles races since Grand National '06
Garvivonnian - An old friend of mine, races
cts are meaningful and rational?
Which therapeutic categories to select?
Which Combinations can address unmet needs of the patients?
Do combin
Which therapeutic categories to select?
Which Combinations can address unmet needs of the patients?
Do combin
prominently and jumps well, so will give a run for money. Doubtful stayer though, alas.
Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer and finished 2nd in a cross country race at Punchestown last weekend.
To these we now add:
Little Brick: Much hyped recruit, who won well at Wincanton last weekend. To my eye, he looked a very good jumper but a doubtful stayer.
Longshanks: No real negatives, and from a stable who has won the race before. Has jumped the Aintree fences twice before in shorter races.
Nil Desperandum: Moved to Venetia Williams this season, an
Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer and finished 2nd in a cross country race at Punchestown last weekend.
To these we now add:
Little Brick: Much hyped recruit, who won well at Wincanton last weekend. To my eye, he looked a very good jumper but a doubtful stayer.
Longshanks: No real negatives, and from a stable who has won the race before. Has jumped the Aintree fences twice before in shorter races.
Nil Desperandum: Moved to Venetia Williams this season, an
tions increase the patient compliance?
What would be the developing cost?
How to tackle the risks encountered during combination product developmen
What would be the developing cost?
How to tackle the risks encountered during combination product developmen
d has been backed for the race.
Puntal: Ran an unbelievable race last year to finish 6th, after 400 days off the track. He’s a bit fitter this year, so could run very well.
Jack High: Former Betfred (aka Whitbread) Gold Cup winner, who was near the top of ante-post lists last year.
So, this is my Dirty Dozen for the race. Some obvious contenders here, and hopefully some interesting dark horses. I have a number of betfair wagers in the triple digit odds, so let’s hope one of them obliges!
------------------------------
COMING SOON: TRAINERFLATSTATS / NAG-NAG-NAG
------------------------------
Another quick plug for TrainerFlatStats, which is i
Puntal: Ran an unbelievable race last year to finish 6th, after 400 days off the track. He’s a bit fitter this year, so could run very well.
Jack High: Former Betfred (aka Whitbread) Gold Cup winner, who was near the top of ante-post lists last year.
So, this is my Dirty Dozen for the race. Some obvious contenders here, and hopefully some interesting dark horses. I have a number of betfair wagers in the triple digit odds, so let’s hope one of them obliges!
------------------------------
COMING SOON: TRAINERFLATSTATS / NAG-NAG-NAG
------------------------------
Another quick plug for TrainerFlatStats, which is i
t?
As combination products don't fit into the traditional categories of drugs, medical devices, or biological products, the USFDA is in the process of devel
As combination products don't fit into the traditional categories of drugs, medical devices, or biological products, the USFDA is in the process of devel
n development and is progressing well. As the name suggests, it’s the same concept but for the flat turf season beginning on 31st March (a very late start this year).
As I mentioned last letter, I’m also planning to introduce a site where TTS / TFS customers and non-customers alike can discuss the burning racing issues of the day, catch up on news stories, and rip me to shreds for my abject blog ramblings.
This site now has a name, though it’s not yet operational.
Step forward, nag-nag-nag.co.uk, the home of racing ranting! (And, hopefully, slightly more informed, insightful and instructive discussions).
I will of course keep you appraised of developmen
As I mentioned last letter, I’m also planning to introduce a site where TTS / TFS customers and non-customers alike can discuss the burning racing issues of the day, catch up on news stories, and rip me to shreds for my abject blog ramblings.
This site now has a name, though it’s not yet operational.
Step forward, nag-nag-nag.co.uk, the home of racing ranting! (And, hopefully, slightly more informed, insightful and instructive discussions).
I will of course keep you appraised of developmen
ping new procedures for reviewing their safety, efficacy and quality.
Professional from academic institutions, pharmaceutical industries, health care indust
Professional from academic institutions, pharmaceutical industries, health care indust
ts as time passes.
More in the next newsletter...
-------------
THE TTS JOKE
-------------
A group of 3rd, 4th and 5th graders, accompanied by two female teachers, went on a field trip to the local racetrack to learn about thoroughbred horses and the supporting industry, but mostly to see the horses.
When it was time to take the children to the bathroom, it was decided that the girls would go with one teacher, and the boys would go with the other. The teacher assigned to the boys was waiting outside the men's room when one of the boys came out and told her that none of them could reach the urinal.
Having no choice, she went inside, helped the
More in the next newsletter...
-------------
THE TTS JOKE
-------------
A group of 3rd, 4th and 5th graders, accompanied by two female teachers, went on a field trip to the local racetrack to learn about thoroughbred horses and the supporting industry, but mostly to see the horses.
When it was time to take the children to the bathroom, it was decided that the girls would go with one teacher, and the boys would go with the other. The teacher assigned to the boys was waiting outside the men's room when one of the boys came out and told her that none of them could reach the urinal.
Having no choice, she went inside, helped the
y and representatives from various regulatory agencies are working out to design the regulatory requirements for manufacture and sale of combination products
boys with their pants, and began hoisting the little boys up one by one - holding onto their "tools" to direct the flow away from their clothes.
As she lifted one, she couldn't help but notice that he was unusually well endowed. Trying not to show that she was staring, the teacher said, "You must be in the 5th." "No, ma'am," he replied, "I'm the jockey riding Silver Arrow in the 4th, but thanks for the lift."
-------------------------------------
“YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN…”
-------------------------------------
Betting School:
Some of you may have heard of this subscription newsletter service, which is available in either email or physical
As she lifted one, she couldn't help but notice that he was unusually well endowed. Trying not to show that she was staring, the teacher said, "You must be in the 5th." "No, ma'am," he replied, "I'm the jockey riding Silver Arrow in the 4th, but thanks for the lift."
-------------------------------------
“YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN…”
-------------------------------------
Betting School:
Some of you may have heard of this subscription newsletter service, which is available in either email or physical
.
As there is an increasing trend of the combination products companies manufacturing such products should be able to tackle the problems involved in the de
As there is an increasing trend of the combination products companies manufacturing such products should be able to tackle the problems involved in the de
(snail) mail format.
The content is no nonsense and unbiased, and each issue takes a view on a number of racing products and services, as well as looking at strategies and techniques to improve your punting.
Although the predominant focus is on horseracing, there are also occasional features on other sports, such as last year’s World Cup Special.
The newsletter has been going since April 2005, and I have been a subscriber for a few months now, and really enjoy its approach (although I don’t always agree with the opinions – nothing wrong with that!)
You can get a free trial copy by clicking the link below:
http://www.betting-school.com/amember/go.php?r=
The content is no nonsense and unbiased, and each issue takes a view on a number of racing products and services, as well as looking at strategies and techniques to improve your punting.
Although the predominant focus is on horseracing, there are also occasional features on other sports, such as last year’s World Cup Special.
The newsletter has been going since April 2005, and I have been a subscriber for a few months now, and really enjoy its approach (although I don’t always agree with the opinions – nothing wrong with that!)
You can get a free trial copy by clicking the link below:
http://www.betting-school.com/amember/go.php?r=
elopment. They need to be wiser in analyzing the market trends and the regulatory requirements.
Companies that provide selfless information through particip
Companies that provide selfless information through particip
1680
If you like it, you’ll find details of how to sign up at the same place.
-------------------------------------
TOMORROW'S TRAINERTRACKSTATS RUNNERS
-------------------------------------
Well done if you backed Kickahead today. We had to sweat in the Stewards’ Room but a nice 11/1 winner for TTS followers!
Below are tomorrow's TTS qualifiers, subject to being 14/1 or shorter in the market:
Huntingdon
2.00 Queen Of Song
3.35 Shardakhan
4.05 Jolly Boy
Inishturk
5.05 Golden Feather
To receive these newsletters, send a blank email to ttsflatback06@getresponse.com.
Best Regards Matt Bisogno
Author, TrainerTrackStats / TrainerFlatStats
If you like it, you’ll find details of how to sign up at the same place.
-------------------------------------
TOMORROW'S TRAINERTRACKSTATS RUNNERS
-------------------------------------
Well done if you backed Kickahead today. We had to sweat in the Stewards’ Room but a nice 11/1 winner for TTS followers!
Below are tomorrow's TTS qualifiers, subject to being 14/1 or shorter in the market:
Huntingdon
2.00 Queen Of Song
3.35 Shardakhan
4.05 Jolly Boy
Inishturk
5.05 Golden Feather
To receive these newsletters, send a blank email to ttsflatback06@getresponse.com.
Best Regards Matt Bisogno
Author, TrainerTrackStats / TrainerFlatStats
tion in industry events and feedback to regulatory authorities would be able to face the challenges and will be successful in developing combination products
HTTP = HTML link (for blogs, profiles,phorums):
<a href="http://www.socialspace.org.ua/article/317775/socialspace-TTS-Newsletter-9.html">TTS Newsletter #9</a>
BB link (for phorums):
[url=http://www.socialspace.org.ua/article/317775/socialspace-TTS-Newsletter-9.html]TTS Newsletter #9[/url]
Related Articles:
Dividends And How To Profit By Them
Stressed? Try the Burning Bowl Ritual
Bookmark it:
|